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译者 毅行
A hard landing for China will have a major negative impact on global commodities and risk currencies, says Marc Faber, the editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom report, who adds that he is more worried about a Chinese economic downturn than a recession in Europe.
《股市枯荣及厄运报告》的编辑麦嘉华说，中国硬着陆将对全球商品和风险货币产生极大负面影响。他还指出，与欧洲衰退相比，他更担忧中国经济下滑。
Faber, whose investment portfolio is concentrated in Asia, believes a Chinese slowdown is already under way.
麦嘉华的投资组合集中在亚洲。他认为，中国经济已经开始减速。
"The (Chinese) economy consists of many sectors and I think some sectors are already probably in a recession," Faber said to CNBC on Friday in a phone interview. "I think growth will be much lower and it is possible that we could have a hard landing with no growth at all."
麦嘉华在周五接受美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）的电话采访时说："（中国）经济有很多部门构成，我认为一些部分可能已经在衰退了。我想，经济增长速度会进一步放缓，很可能会迎来一个毫无增长的硬着陆。"
Faber, who correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and more recently forecast the stock market correction in August, says China's economy depends largely on capital spending, which tends to be volatile and has a strong multiplier effect on the economy.
麦嘉华曾正确预测到1987年股市大崩盘，最近又预测说8月份进行股市调整。他说，中国经济很大程度上依赖资本开支，而资本开支不稳定，对经济有强烈的乘数效应。
While a recession in Europe could mean a gross domestic production contraction of 1-2 percent, he expects a shrinking Chinese economy to have a more widespread impact globally.
欧洲经济衰退意味着国内生产总值会减少1%-2%，然而麦嘉华预测，不断衰退的中国经济将会全球带来更广泛的影响。
The commodities market, in particular, will bear the brunt of a China economic deceleration, said Faber. "If the Chinese economy grows at 10 percent, or 5 percent or no growth, it has a huge impact on iron ore, copper, nickel, anything. "
麦嘉华说，尤其是商品市场，将在中国经济减速下首当其冲。"如果中国经济增长率为10%，或5%，或出现零增长，这就对铁矿石、铜、镍等等带来巨大影响。"
"It will have on the global economy a devastating impact via the resource producers of the world, whether it's Brazil or Australia or the Middle East or Africa," Faber added.
他还补充道："这还会通过资源出口国，不管是澳大利亚、中东还是非洲，给世界经济带来毁灭性影响。"
When asked about investor Jim Rogers' view that commodities will continue to do well in the long-run, in spite of a China slowdown, Faber said: "If I was always bullish about commodities and completely missed out on the crash in 2008, then obviously, having tied essentially my reputation to commodities, I'd continue to be bullish." Read Rogers' rebuttal here.
在问到投资人吉姆 罗杰（Jim Roger）观点时，即虽然中国经济衰退但商品交易将在长期表现良好，麦嘉华说："要是我总看好商品交易，完全无视2008年的危机，那么很显然，我实质上就把自己的名声和商品挂钩了，我会继续看行情上涨。"
Still, Faber says gold Gold / US Dollar Exchange should get some support over the near-to-medium term as he expects central banks in Europe and the U.S. to print more money to prop up their economies. As such, he advises investors to steer clear of the Australian dollar Australian Dollar / US Dollar FX Spot Exchange the Canadian dollar US Dollar / Canadian Dollar FX Spot Exchange and resources stocks.
麦嘉华还表示，黄金兑美元的汇率应该得到近、中期的一些支持。他预计，欧洲央行和美国会印制更多钞票来刺激经济发展。他建议投资人掌握好澳元、澳元兑美元现货外汇汇率、加币、美元兑加币现货外汇汇率和资源存量。
麦嘉华说，他保持投资多样化，把组合平均分到黄金、房地产、股票以及现金和债券四个方面。他说，为防止市场进一步调整，他留下一些现金来购买资产。
Faber says he is staying well diversified with his portfolio divided equally in four parts between gold, real estate, stocks, and cash and bonds. He adds that he is keeping cash on hand to scoop up assets should markets correct further.
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